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Review

22 April 2025

Counterfeit Drug Investigations: Techniques, Challenges, and the Role of Abductive Reasoning

Variable types of investigations exist regarding counterfeit drug detection, disruption, and regulation. Counterfeit drugs are spurious drugs, falsely labelled, falsified, substandard, unregistered/unlicensed, and infringe trademarks. Counterfeit drugs can mimic both legitimate and illegitimate drugs and are often distributed in virtual environments, such as illicit online pharmacies, the surface web, and the dark web. Counterfeit drug operators and operations are the typically corrupt and/or criminal individuals, groups, and techniques by which counterfeit drugs are produced and distributed. The manufacture and distribution of counterfeit drugs are ever-changing, which results in the need for investigative techniques that are equally adaptable and collaborative. Counterfeit drug investigations can be defined according to four categories: medical investigations in hospitals and through autopsies, chemical and non-chemical drug investigations in forensic toxicology laboratories, various track-and-trace technologies used in pharmaceutical industry investigations, and national and global coordinated investigations. Due to the diverse counterfeit drug investigations present, the logic and practice of abduction are highlighted as a primary part of the investigative element to counter ongoing efforts by offenders to evade detection. Abductive rationalities are prioritized in that they are contrary to an increasing reliance on technoscientific modes of data production alone. Rather, abductive reasoning plays a central role in counterfeit drug investigations at the levels of instigating and directing investigations, as well as interpreting and responding to evidential findings.

Keywords: Counterfeit drugs; Investigations; Forensic toxicology; Pharmaceutical industry; Criminal networks; Corruption; Abductive logic

Review

10 September 2024

A Review of the Current Landscape of Anti-Fibrotic Medicines

Fibrosis is defined as the excessive accumulation and disorganized deposition of extracellular matrix components, affecting any organ in the human body. Fibrotic diseases of the vital organs such as lung, heart, kidney and liver can be chronic, progressive, irreversible and fatal. Although fibrotic diseases account for 45% of the mortality in the Western world, the available treatment options are limited in numbers, efficacy and safety. There is certainly a lack of progress in developing novel anti-fibrotics even though the market size for fibrotic diseases is estimated to be ~$30B and several pharmaceutical companies have active R&D programmes in this field. We reviewed the current efforts in developing novel anti-fibrotic medicines focusing on lung, heart, kidney, liver and skin fibrosis. Our analysis revealed an estimated 83% attrition rate from Phase 2 to Phase 3 trials across the five fibrotic diseases. The possible reasons for the slow pace and high attrition rates in developing new anti-fibrotics are discussed and potential solutions are proposed.

Keywords: Fibrosis; Drug discovery; Pharmaceutical; Pharmacology
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